000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022128
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED APR 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENTLY NOT IDENTIFIABLE. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 08N87W TO 04N100W TO 05N108W TO 02N115W TO 04N121W 
THEN RESUMES AT 02N128W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 92W AND 110W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 101W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

ALOFT...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WHILE NEARLY 
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N AND W OF 
110W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N120W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO BEYOND 11N140W AND ANOTHER RIDGE 
STRETCHING NE ACROSS SE MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A 
MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND 
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE EQUATOR AT 94W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 92W AND 110W.  

AT LOWER LEVELS...A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF THE 
AREA NEAR 33N150W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N108W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE HIGH IS PRODUCING AN 
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 18N W OF 135W... 
WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT PER THE MOST RECENT ALTIMETER PASS.  
SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. 
IN ADDITION...THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER 
PRES ACROSS MEXICO IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS 
FUNNELING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA MAINLY 
FROM 24N TO 28N E OF 116W...AS NOTED IN SHIP OBSERVATIONS OVER 
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. A COLD FRONT 
WILL CLIP THE N WATERS LATE THU INTO FRI. 

A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED ON THE 
1800 UTC SURFACE MAP FROM 09N124W TO 02N124.5W. SOME INVERTED V 
PATTERN IS NOTED IN THE CLOUD FIELD IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WWD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REACHING NEAR 130W-131W BY THU AFTERNOON. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL MIXED WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE 
TRADE WIND FLOW...ALONG WITH A MINOR CONTRIBUTION OF SOUTHERLY 
SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W...WHILE CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL CAN BE FOUND OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN EPAC 
E OF 110W. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL REACH 
THE FAR NW WATERS LATE THU BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT.
   
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE 
DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN 
TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT. THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO 
THEN PULSE AT 15-20 KT LATE EACH NIGHT FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH 
SAT NIGHT.    

GULF OF PANAMA...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS 
THIS AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO PULSE AT 15-20 KT LATE EACH NIGHT 
THROUGH THU NIGHT.

$$
GR