000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021606 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED APR 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N89W TO 04N110W TO 02N115W TO 02N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET STREAM IS NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS NOTED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET DYNAMICS IS RESULTING IN LOW SURFACE PRES ACROSS THE SW UNITED STATES. THE LOW PRES IS CREATING A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N150W TO NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. THIS IN TURN IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS FUNNELING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NEAR CABO SAN LAZARO TO THE NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA AND CEDROS ISLAND...AS NOTED IN SHIP OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 04 UTC. A LARGE AREA OF NW SWELL IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA NORTH OF 22N. WAVEWATCH III AND EC WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SWELL WILL DECAY BELOW 8 FT IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE 10N TO 23N W OF 120W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ALONG 10N WEST OF 110W. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN THIS AREA...MAINLY DUE TO LONG PERIOD NW SWELL MIXED WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE TRADE WIND FLOW...ALONG WITH A MINOR CONTRIBUTION OF SOUTHERLY SWELL. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE IS INTERACTING WITH TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ALONG 13N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. THE WIND FIELDS ALSO INDICATE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE ITCZ FROM 05N TO 10N ALONG 122W. THIS IS FEATURE IS WEAKENING HOWEVER AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE IT WILL LARGELY DAMPEN OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. AN BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TO 05N105W. THIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 20- 25 KT LATE TONIGHT. THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO THEN PULSE AT 15-20 KT LATE EACH NIGHT FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS AT 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 5-7 FT ARE OBSERVED N OF 06N BETWEEN 79-81W...REACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THEN PULSE AT 15-20 KT LATE EACH NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. $$ CHRISTENSEN