000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020235
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED APR 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON FLOW IS PRESENTLY NON EXISTENT. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
08N85W TO 05N100W TO 03N110W TO 06N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 90W 
AND 98W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 
105W AND 111W AND FROM 06N TO 09N W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
ALOFT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N 
OF 18N AND W OF 110W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED 
NEAR 09N109W WITH BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS MEXICO INTO 
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS 
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TO NEAR 07N93W. 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO 
INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 98W.  

AT LOWER LEVELS...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N116W 
TO 27N125W TO 25N140W. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND 
SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL FOLLOW THE FRONT. A 1030 MB 
SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 33N148W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE AND BRIDGING ACROSS THE FRONT TO NEAR 
18N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE HIGH IS 
PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 09N TO 20N 
W OF 130W...WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. IN ADDITION...THE TIGHT 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ACROSS MEXICO WILL 
BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
LATE WED...PARTICULARLY N OF 25N E OF 116W.  

A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED ALONG 140W 
FROM 05N TO 11N. CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAS 
SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED DURING THE PASS FEW HOURS. CURRENTLY... 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED MAINLY 
E OF AXIS FROM 06N TO 09N W OF 135W. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO 
MOVE WWD AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST REGION. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL MIXED WITH NE WIND WAVES DOMINATES MOST OF 
THE WATERS W OF 110W...WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL CAN BE 
FOUND OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN EPAC E OF 110W. ADDITIONAL 
PULSES OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR NW WATERS LATE 
THU BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT.
  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 20-25 KT 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS...THEN WEAKEN TO 10-20 KT BY NOON...WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE THROUGH THU NIGHT. 

GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS AT 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 6-8 FT ARE 
OBSERVED N OF 06N BETWEEN 79-81W TO INCLUDE THE WESTERN PORTION 
OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE 
EVENING BUT WILL DEVELOP TO 20-25 KT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...AND 
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NOCTURNAL SURGE 
TO MAX AT 20 KT ON WED NIGHT.

$$
GR