000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012128
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC TUE APR 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
MONSOON FLOW IS PRESENTLY NON EXISTENT. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
08N85W TO 06N96W TO 03N110W TO 04N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 87W AND 98W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 105W AND 111W...AND FROM 
08N TO 11N BETWEEN 126W AND 131W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N W OF 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS AT UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 16N AND W OF 110W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED NEAR 09N110W WITH BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS 
MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO NEAR 06N93W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 87W AND 98W.  

AT LOWER LEVELS...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N120W 
TO 27N130W TO 28N140W. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 
10 FT IN NW SWELL FOLLOW THE FRONT. A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH IS 
CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 33N148W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE 
AND BRIDGING ACROSS THE FRONT TO NEAR 18N109W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE HIGH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 09N TO 20N AND W OF LINE FROM 
20N135W TO 09N128W...WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT.

A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 
09N138W TO 04N141W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 05N 
TO 09N W OF 135W. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WWD AND AWAY FROM THE 
FORECAST REGION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. 
  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 20-25 KT 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS...THEN WEAKEN TO 10-20 KT BY NOON...WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE THROUGH THU. 

GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS AT 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 5-8 FT ARE 
OBSERVED N OF 04N BETWEEN 79-82W TO INCLUDE THE WESTERN PORTION 
OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE 
AFTERNOON BUT WILL DEVELOP TO 20-25 KT AGAIN TONIGHT...AND 
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NOCTURNAL SURGE 
TO MAX AT 20 KT ON WED NIGHT.

$$
GR