000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010945 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE APR 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM 08N86W TO 02N120W...THEN RESUMES FROM 08N126W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N90W TO 02N113W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N125W TO 07N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N123W TO A BASE AT 27N128W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 09N11W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO A CREST OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW TO CREST OVER THE TROPICS AT 09N130W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 06N141W WITH AN ILL-DEFINED MID- UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DEEP TROPICS E OF ITS RIDGE AND W OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE ANTICYCLONE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR TO BASE OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 11N90W. WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO S OF THE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE TROPICS BETWEEN 95-120W...IS ENHANCING THE NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TO THE S OF THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE ITCZ. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N120W TO 28N135W. THE FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY NW-N 10-15 KT WINDS. POST FRONTAL NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT TO THE NW OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 28N140W TO 18N109W. TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE THE SURFACE WINDS ARE NW AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N E OF 118W TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA... WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN MIXING NW AND S SWELL. THE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 20-25 KT S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08- 20N W OF 132W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. ELSEWHERE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ ALL TO THE W OF 120W...NE WINDS ARE AT 15-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXING N AND S SWELL. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN WEAKEN TO 10-20 KT BY NOON...WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THU. AN AREA OF NE SWELL FROM A PREVIOUS GULF OF PAPAGAYO EVENT HAS PROPAGATED WSW TO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N91W TO 10N107W WHERE IT MIXES WITH NW AND SW SWELL...RESULTING IN SEAS OF 7-9 FT. THESE NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE SW AND SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT ON WED NIGHT. GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS AT 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 5-6 FT ARE OBSERVED N OF 06N BETWEEN 79-81W TO INCLUDE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DEVELOP TO 20-25 KT AGAIN TONIGHT...AND DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NOCTURNAL SURGE TO MAX AT 20 KT ON WED NIGHT. $$ NELSON