000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON MAR 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 04N90W TO 02N100W TO 06N120W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 84W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 123W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N W OF 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE NW CORNER N OF 
25N W OF 130W. A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE 
TROPICS NEAR 11N115W. THIS HIGH EXTENDS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 140W. THE ITCZ IS HIGHLY ENHANCED W OF 123W DUE 
TO THE INTERACTION OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 5N E OF 100W WITH 
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. ITCZ CONVECTION IS THUS CONFINED TO 
WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 100W.

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS NOW JUST N OF 30N BETWEEN 130W 
AND 140W AND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A NEW 
BATCH OF NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING SEAS TO 
AS HIGH AS 10 FT OVER THE FAR N CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS N OF 15N W OF 120W. 
AN AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS REMAIN FROM 07N TO 17N W OF 130W 
AND WILL ALSO LAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

GAP WINDS...                                                   

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ABOVE ADVISORY 
CRITERIA IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IN THE MORNING HOURS. NE SWELL 
WILL KEEP SEAS DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO ABOVE 8 FT THROUGH TUE. THE 
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL SHRINK TO THE IMMEDIATE AREA 
NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY WED MORNING AS THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT FURTHER DIMINISHES.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AN AREA OF RESIDUAL 8 FT SWELL IS SW OF 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W.  
THIS SWELL WILL LAST FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS. 
 
$$
FORMOSA