000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON MAR 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1330 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N86W TO 02N102W TO 05N120W TO 
04N135W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 133W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM N OF 
THE AXIS W OF 133W. OFFSHORE OF THE BORDER OF PANAMA AND COSTA 
RICA...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 06N TO 8.5N 
BETWEEN 82.5W AND 85W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N151W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
THROUGH 30N140W...ALONG 30N TO 123W...THEN SW TO 19N110W. THIS 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...ALLOWING A FRESH TO STRONG NW BREEZE N 
OF 28N. THESE WINDS WERE OBSERVED BY THE 0416 ASCAT-B PASS AND 
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS 
SHIFTED SW BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT WILL SEND A COLD 
FRONT S OF 32N THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER N 
WATERS BY TUE. A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT 
WILL BRING SEAS TO AS HIGH AS 12 FT TUE NIGHT OVER THE FAR N 
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA.

0640 UTC ASCAT-A AND 0554 UTC ASCAT-B PASSES SHOWS FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 06N TO 22N W OF 
125W. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SW...THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE 
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WED MORNING.

AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 11N117W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 11N TO 
130W. TO ITS W...AN UPPER TROUGH LIES FROM 10N140W TO THE 
EQUATOR AT 128W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS  
ENHANCING THE VERTICAL LIFT OF MOISTURE POOLED S OF 10N W OF 
125W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE 
ITCZ IN THIS AREA. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION 
ABOVE.

GAP WINDS...                                                   

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ABOVE ADVISORY 
CRITERIA IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE 
ITCZ HAS INCREASED...ALLOWING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE THIS 
MORNING WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND. LOOK 
FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT ON TUE MORNING AS THE HIGH 
SHIFTS EASTWARD. NE SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO 
ABOVE 8 FT THROUGH TUE. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL 
SHRINK TO THE IMMEDIATE AREA NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY WED 
MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER DIMINISHES.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO AND THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EASTWARD THIS 
MORNING...MAKING WAY FOR TROUGHING CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE 
U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS A RESULT. THE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE 
CURRENTLY IN THE AREA WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER 
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NE SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS DOWNSTREAM OF 
TEHUANTEPEC OVER 8 FT UNTIL THIS EVENING.
 
$$
SCHAUER