000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON MAR 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO 
GENERATE AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 31/1200 UTC 
THIS MORNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS A RESULT. AN EARLIER 
SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 31/0316 UTC INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF 
WINDS 30 TO 35 KT OCCURRING WITHIN THE GULF. GIVEN A WIND FIELD 
OF 20 TO 30 KT EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC REGION...LATEST WAVEWATCH III DATA INDICATES SEAS TO 
12 FT. GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY 
MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N107W TO 
06N127W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 
08N W OF 121W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
WHILE A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS E-NE OUT 
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OF THE U.S...THE KICKER WAVE OF ENERGY 
LOCATED TO THE WEST OVER THE NE PACIFIC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 
DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE NEAR 
47N134W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE 
AREA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 30N130W WITH THE 
COLD FRONT REMAINING GENERALLY N OF 35N AT THIS TIME. ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA...SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS SE FROM A 1030 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 34N151W THAT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SE OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS AND REMAIN THE PRIMARILY INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SE 
PACIFIC WATERS. THE LARGEST IMPACT FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY TUESDAY 
IS AN AREA OF NW SWELL WITH SEAS REACHING A PEAK OF 10 FT.

OTHERWISE...RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES A RATHER LARGE 
AREA OF NE TO E TRADE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE 
RIDGING IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 
07N TO 19N W OF 129W. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO 28N 
THROUGH TUESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF TRADES WILL 
PERSIST GENERALLY W OF 130W THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FARTHER SOUTH...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 10N117W IS 
INTERACTING WITH TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE ITCZ REGION 
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 08N W OF 
121W. 

GAP WINDS...                                                   
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA IS RESULTING IN A 
STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND 
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IN TURN IS 
ALLOWING STRONG GAP WINDS TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. NE SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS 
DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO HOVERING AROUND THE 8 FT LEVEL DURING THE 
DAY MONDAY.
 
$$
HUFFMAN