000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310258
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC MON MAR 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH CHIVELA PASS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS A RESULT. LATEST 
OBSERVATIONS FROM COATZACOALCOS ON THE NORTHERN ENTRANCE TO THE 
TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS IS SHOWING GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...A GOOD 
INDICATION THAT THE GRADIENT FLOW FUNNELING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS 
AND MIXING DOWN INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS STILL AT GALE 
FORCE. SEAS ARE BELIEVED TO BE AS HIGH AS 13 FT. MINIMAL GALE 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MON MORNING WHEN THE 
HIGH PRES TO THE N SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
RELAXES.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

ITCZ AXIS FROM 04N100W TO 07N115W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 
122W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE 
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
MOVING THROUGH 140W N OF 28N...IN PHASE WITH A THIRD UPPER 
TROUGH NE OF HAWAII. PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW PRES IS CENTERED 
ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARADE OF UPPER 
TROUGHS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. 1032 MB HIGH PRES IS KEPT IN PLACE 
NEAR 34N150W...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG 
32N...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAKENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA TO 25N140W. 

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE 20 TO 25 
KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 17N TO 21N W OF 135W. THE RIDGE 
AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO 28N THROUGH MONDAY AS THE NEXT 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THE WEST 
COAST. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 130W MON 
THROUGH WED. MEANWHILE SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA VERIFY WAVEWATCH 
III AND ECWAVE INITIALIZATIONS INDICATING SEAS HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 
FT N OF 07N W OF 125W. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT 
PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD N OF THE 
AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY LONG PERIOD NW SWELL REACHING THE WATERS N 
OF 28N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W BY TUE.

BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INITIALIZE WITH STRONG NW FLOW OFF 
THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF PUNTA EUGENIA...AS THE 
RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER AN ASCAT PASS 
FROM 18 UTC PARTIALLY CAPTURED SOME OF THIS AREA AND SHOWED ONLY 
15 TO 20 KT. THIS MAY HAVE MISSED THE STRONGER WINDS OFF COAST N 
OF 28N. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE STRONG WINDS...ALONG 
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN THIS AREA. 
 
FARTHER SOUTH...UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE SW SIDE OF AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 10N118W IS INTERACTING WITH TRADE WIND 
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION BETWEEN 120W AND 
130W. 

GAP WINDS...                                                   

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS ALLOWING THE PRES 
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND HIGHER TERRAIN 
OF SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...ALLOWING STRONG GAP WINDS TO PULSE 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...AND 
AGAIN ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. NE SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS 
DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO ABOVE 8 FT DURING THE DAY MON.

 
$$
CHRISTENSEN