000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302134 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN MAR 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH CHIVELA PASS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS A RESULT. SHIP SJCD REPORTED 33 KT WINDS AT 1200 UTC NEAR 13.8N95.2W... APPROXIMATELY 145 NM S-SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LATEST REPORTS FROM SALINA CRUZ NEAR THE PACIFIC END OF THE ISTHMUS INDICATE WINDS NEAR 30 KT...A GOOD INDICATION THAT WINDS ARE STILL NEAR GALE FORCE OVER ADJACENT WATERS. SEAS ARE BELIEVED TO BE AS HIGH AS 13 FT. MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MON MORNING WHEN THE HIGH PRES TO THE N SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ AXIS FROM 04N100W TO 07N115W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH 140W N OF 28N...IN PHASE WITH A THIRD UPPER TROUGH NE OF HAWAII. PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW PRES IS CENTERED ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARADE OF UPPER TROUGHS OVER THE NE PACIFIC. 1032 MB HIGH PRES IS KEPT IN PLACE NEAR 34N150W...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG 32N...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAKENING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 25N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 17N TO 21N W OF 135W. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO 28N THROUGH MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THE WEST COAST. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 130W MON THROUGH WED. MEANWHILE SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA VERIFY WAVEWATCH III AND ECWAVE INITIALIZATIONS INDICATING SEAS HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT N OF 07N W OF 125W. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD N OF THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY LONG PERIOD NW SWELL REACHING THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W BY TUE. BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INITIALIZE WITH STRONG NW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF PUNTA EUGENIA...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER AN ASCAT PASS FROM 18 UTC PARTIALLY CAPTURED SOME OF THIS AREA AND SHOWED ONLY 15 TO 20 KT. THIS MAY HAVE MISSED THE STRONGER WINDS OFF COAST N OF 28N. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE STRONG WINDS...ALONG WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN THIS AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE SW SIDE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 10N118W IS INTERACTING WITH TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE ITCZ HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS TO 25 KT BELIEVED TO BE DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO E OF 90W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING THE GALE WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHIFTS EASTWARD...MOVING N OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND. NE SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO ABOVE 8 FT DURING THE DAY MON. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT AGAIN ON TUE MORNING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. $$ CHRISTENSEN