000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301533 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN MAR 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HIGH PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH CHIVELA PASS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS A RESULT. SHIP SJCD REPORTED 33 KT WINDS AT 1200 UTC NEAR 13.8N95.2W... APPROXIMATELY 145 NM S-SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE BELIEVED TO BE AS HIGH AS 13 FT. MINIMAL GALE CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MON MORNING WHEN THE HIGH PRES TO THE N SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... ITCZ AXIS FROM 05N93W TO 05N106W TO 06N113W TO 01N135W TO 03N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 150 NM AND 330 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES N OF THE AXIS TO 08N BETWEEN 119W AND 133W. A SECOND ITCZ AXIS LIES S OF THE AREA FROM 04S93W TO 03S107W TO THE EQUATOR AT 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA S OF 02N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES ITS AXIS FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH CALIFORNIA INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM 32N121W TO 27N140W. THIS TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FOUND OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM 32N120W TO 26N130W TO 25N140W. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAS ALREADY BROUGHT SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE INTO WATERS N OF 17N W OF 130W...AND THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL WILL SPREAD S ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST TODAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO BUILD OVER N WATERS. 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 34N153W BEHIND THE DISSIPATING FRONT IS BUILDING A RIDGE THROUGH 32N137W INTO THE FORECAST AREA TO 20N116W. THIS BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...ALLOWING NW WINDS TO BECOME A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE N OF 28N. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MON AFTERNOON WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTED S BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT WILL SEND A COLD FRONT S OF 32N BY MON AFTERNOON. A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 11 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER N WATERS BY TUE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS N WATERS...TRADE WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER FAR W WATERS. THE 0700 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE FROM 17N TO 21N W OF 135W. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS S TODAY...THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD...CLOSER TO THE ITCZ. TRADES WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20-25 KT ONCE AGAIN MON EVENING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS. AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 06N99W TO A SECOND ANTICYCLONE NEAR 10N120W TO 04N135W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE VERTICAL LIFT OF MOISTURE POOLED S OF 08N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE ITCZ HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS TO 25 KT BELIEVED TO BE DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO E OF 89W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING THE GALE WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHIFTS EASTWARD...MOVING N OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND. NE SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO ABOVE 8 FT DURING THE DAY MON. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT AGAIN ON TUE MORNING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. $$ SCHAUER