000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN MAR 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
N-NE SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN WAKE OF 
A RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT HAS MOVED E OF 94W IN THE SW 
GULF IS PROVIDING FOR THE LATEST GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE EVENT 
OCCURRING NOW THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OF 
SHORT DURATION DUE TO THE OVERALL WEAKER NATURE OF THE COLD 
FRONT AND DUE TO THE FACT THAT IT IS LATE IN THE SEASON FOR 
STRONGER COLD AIR PUNCHES TO REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ISTHMUS 
REGION. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 11 FT BY LATE SUNDAY 
INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING 
QUICKLY THEREAFTER AS WINDS VEER SE IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N85W TO 08N89W TO 06N91W TO 
05N94W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
11N107W TO 09N120W TO 03N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 92W AND 106W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 115W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THIS 
MORNING THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N123W SW 
TO 27N135W THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N140W. WINDS IN WAKE 
OF THE FRONT REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS PER RECENT SCATTEROMETER 
DATA...HOWEVER THE MAIN IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE 8 TO 10 FT SEAS 
IN NW SWELL ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST IS THE PRIMARY TRADE WIND AREA ON THE 
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB 
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N152W. CONTINUED NW SWELL IS RESULTING IN 
SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FT GENERALLY FROM 05N TO 21N W OF 125W 
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
NEAR 10N120W THAT IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE WESTERN DISCUSSION 
AREA WITH DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE ALOFT RESULTING IN 
RATHER BENIGN SURFACE CONDITIONS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AS A FRESH TO 
STRONG NE BREEZE IN THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING IN 
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EAST PACIFIC ITCZ WILL DIMINISH 
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...BUT RETURN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH 
PRESSURE DRIVING THE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
SHIFTS EASTWARD...MOVING NORTH OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
 
$$
HUFFMAN