000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT MAR 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF TEHUANTEPEC... 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND 
A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE HIGH AND THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH INCREASING THE WINDS THROUGH 
CHIVELA PASS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 
10 FT BY SUN MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE 
FORCE BY SUN AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT 
BY MON AFTERNOON. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

ITCZ AXIS FROM 05N108W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 111W AND 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...  

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS ENTERED THE NW CORNER N OF 20W AND W OF 
120W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 120W TO INCLUDE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND N MEXICO.  

IN THE DEEP TROPICS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
10N120W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 8N98W. THE 
TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGHS ARE SEPARATED BY A COL AT 7N108W. 

A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW CORNER AND EXTENDS FROM 30N130W 
TO BEYOND 27N140W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH PRES IS FURTHER E NEAR 27N125W. A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO 17N115W. 
 
A SWELL AREA OF 8 TO 9 FT IS OVER THE NW CORNER MOVING SE AND 
EXPANDING IN AREA.

NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE ARE FORECAST ALONG 
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 29N WITHIN 90 NM OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA IN 24 HOURS. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE 
WITHIN 48 HOURS. 
 
NE TO E TRADEWINDS WINDS 20KT OR LESS WITH NW SWELL TO 9 FT ARE 
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 05N TO 16N W OF 120W. THE SWELL AREA WILL 
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH TO 
STRONG NE BREEZE IN THE MORNING HOURS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
THROUGH MON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE NW 
CARIBBEAN AND THE ITCZ WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON SUN...BUT WILL 
RETURN ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING THE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHIFTS EASTWARD...MOVING N OF THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO.
 
$$
FORMOSA