000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291518 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT MAR 29 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N88W TO 03N93W TO 04N101W TO 01N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 90W...FROM 60 NM TO 270 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 102W...WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 112W...AND WITHIN 390 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 126W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK UPPER TROUGH FROM 32N117W TO 14N110W LIES AHEAD OF THE 100 KT WESTERLY UPPER JET OVER N WATERS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE VERTICAL MOTION PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS CAN BE FOUND. FARTHER W...A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE PACIFIC N OF THE AREA FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND TO JUST NW OF KAUAI. THIS TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT FOUND OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM 32N134W TO 28N140W. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAS ALREADY BROUGHT SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE INTO NW WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST ON SUN. THE PRIMARY NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IN THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD N OF THE AREA...WEAKENING THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE AND LEAVING BEHIND AN UPPER LOW W OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 29N130W WILL WEAKEN AND MERGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA BEHIND THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. RIDGING WILL BUILD ALONG 30N ON SUN...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND ALLOWING NW WINDS TO BECOME A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THAT AREA. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS N WATERS...TRADE WINDS OVER FAR W WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE BY SUN AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...SCATTEROMETER DATA ONLY SHOWS A FRESH BREEZE IN THE USUAL TRADE WIND BELT. AN AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES CAN BE FOUND IN THIS TRADE WIND BELT FROM 05N TO 17N W OF 114W THIS MORNING. SEAS HERE WILL MERGE WITH THE NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 07N98W TO A SECOND ANTICYCLONE NEAR 09N120W TO 03N135W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE VERTICAL LIFT OF MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 105W WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE ITCZ. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE...AS IS THE CONVECTION JUST SW OF THE WESTERN ANTICYCLONE. THIS AREA IS COINCIDENT WITH POOLED MOISTURE NEAR THE ITCZ NOTED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. MERGING NW SWELL AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL BRING SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE AREA NEAR THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 110W AND 120W BEGINNING SAT AFTERNOON. THIS SWELL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE GALAPAGOS AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY SUN. GAP WINDS... GULF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH INCREASING THE WINDS THROUGH CHIVELA PASS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS A RESULT. SEAS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 12 FT BY SUN MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY SUN AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD...BUT A FRESH TO STRONG N-NE BREEZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MON MORNING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE IN THE MORNING HOURS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE ITCZ WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON SUN...BUT WILL RETURN ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING THE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHIFTS EASTWARD...MOVING N OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. $$ SCHAUER