000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT MAR 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N86W TO 06N100W TO 03N113W TO 
01N122W TO 03N131W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 86W AND 
91W AND FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 96W AND 103W. 

...DISCUSSION...  

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH FROM 32N118W TO 20N114W DISRUPTS THE 
SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 28N. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE 
VERTICAL MOTION PRIMARILY OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS 
CAN BE FOUND FROM 22N TO 28N E OF 115W INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. 
A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR 29N128W BUT THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT HAS WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. THUS THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISH WITH 
THE SEAS SUBSIDING THIS MORNING. 

TO THE WEST...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS 
FROM 32N134W TO 28N140W. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAS 
ALREADY BROUGHT SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE INTO NW WATERS. THIS 
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH 
SEAS OVER 8 FT REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST ON 
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE 
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND INCREASE NW WINDS TO A FRESH 
TO STRONG BREEZE BY SUN AFTERNOON. 

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS N WATERS...TRADE WINDS 
OVER FAR W ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD TO A FRESH TO STRONG 
NE BREEZE BY SUN. FOR NOW...SCATTEROMETER DATA ONLY SHOWS A 
FRESH BREEZE IN THE USUAL TRADE WIND BELT. AN AREA OF SEAS TO 9 
FT IN NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES CAN BE FOUND IN THIS TRADE WIND 
BELT FROM 06N TO 16N W OF 114W TONIGHT. SEA CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES FROM W PANAMA/COSTA RICA TO AN 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 07N99W TO A SECOND ANTICYCLONE NEAR 08N121W TO 
07N135W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN 
ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE VERTICAL LIFT OF MOISTURE POOLED 
NEAR THE ITCZ. SEE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE FOR CONVECTION. 

MERGING NW SWELL AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL BRING SEAS 
TO 8 FT IN THE AREA NEAR THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 113W AND 120W 
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SWELL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD 
THE GALAPAGOS AND DISSIPATE EARLY SUN MORNING.

GAP WINDS...                                                   
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH TO 
STRONG NE BREEZE IN THE MORNING HOURS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
THIS MORNING AND SUN MORNING THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. 

GULF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH INCREASING 
THE WINDS THROUGH CHIVELA PASS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY TONIGHT AS A RESULT. SEAS 
WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 11 FT BY SUN MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE TO NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD SUN EVENING.
 
$$
PAW