000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290331 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT MAR 29 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N83W TO 05N86W TO 06N102W TO 03N125W TO 04N132W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM N AND 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 102W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK UPPER TROUGH FROM 32N123W TO 18N120W DISRUPTS THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 28N. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE VERTICAL MOTION PRIMARILY OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS CAN BE FOUND FROM 20N TO 29N E OF 120W INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 29N129W HAS TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE MULTIPLE SHIPS HAVE REPORTED FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THESE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TO THE WEST...A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW WATERS FROM 32N134W TO 30N140W. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAS ALREADY BROUGHT SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE INTO NW WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT REACHING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST ON SUNDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD...HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND INCREASE NW WINDS TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BY SUN. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FROM 30N130W TO 25N140W BY SAT EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS N WATERS...TRADE WINDS OVER FAR W WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD TO A FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE BY SUN. FOR NOW...SCATTEROMETER DATA ONLY SHOWS A FRESH BREEZE IN THE USUAL TRADE WIND BELT. AN AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES CAN BE FOUND IN THIS TRADE WIND BELT FROM 05N TO 17N W OF 115W THIS EVENING. SEA CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES FROM COSTA RICA TO AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 07N98W TO A SECOND ANTICYCLONE NEAR 09N123W TO 05N135W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING THE VERTICAL LIFT OF MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 100W WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE ITCZ. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND NEAR THE WESTERN ANTICYCLONE. MERGING NW SWELL AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL BRING SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE AREA NEAR THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 110W AND 120W BEGINNING SAT AFTERNOON. THIS SWELL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE GALAPAGOS AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY SUN. GAP WINDS... GULF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SAT...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH INCREASING THE WINDS THROUGH CHIVELA PASS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY SAT NIGHT AS A RESULT. SEAS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 11 FT BY SUN MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SUN EVENING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE IN THE MORNING HOURS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SAT AND SUN MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE ITCZ WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON SUN...REDUCING THE AREA AND DURATION OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO COMPARED TO SAT. $$ SCHAUER