000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281555
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC FRI MAR 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N88W TO 05N99W TO 03N108W TO 05N112W TO 
03N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 06N 
BETWEEN 101W AND 107W. 

...DISCUSSION...  

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N128W 
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 18N WEST OF 114W. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
SHOWS FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE CONVERGENCE 
ZONE W OF 115-120W WITH HIGHEST WINDS GREATER THAN 25 KT FOUND W 
OF 140W IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. VERY STRONG WINDS IN THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN ARE FLOWING THROUGH OROGRAPHIC GAPS IN CENTRAL AMERICA 
TO PRODUCE 20-30 KT WINDS DOWNWIND FROM GULF OF PAPAGAYO FROM 9N 
TO 12.5N EAST OF 91W AND GENERATING SEAS TO 9-10 FT. FRESH NW 
WINDS ARE CONTINUING ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA BUT 
STARTING TO DIMINISH. 

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT NIGHT 
THEN DISSIPATE SUN AS WEAKENING FRONT BREAKS THROUGH THE RIDGE. 
THE RIDGE WILL REDEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HIGH FORMING 
NEAR 32N146W IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. WINDS IN PAPAGAYO GULF WILL 
BARELY REACH 20-25 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS STRONG PRES GRADIENT 
IN W CARIBBEAN EASES AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT IN REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
WILL INDUCE A GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND PRODUCE STRONG 
N WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY SUN MORNING. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REACH 30-35 KT BY 12Z SUN WITH SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING 
TO 10-11 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTED SUN 
MORNING BASED ON AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. GFS SHOWS HIGH WIND EVENT 
VERY SHORT IN DURATION...ONLY 12 HOURS OR SO BETWEEN 09Z-15Z.

$$
MUNDELL