000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260903
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC WED MAR 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE WITH WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL 
AFFECT THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 
THIS GAP WINDS EVENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS OVER THE GULF 
OF MEXICO VEER TODAY DECREASING THE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS 
AFTERNOON WITH RESIDUAL SEAS TO 8 FT LINGERING OVER THE AREA. BY 
EARLY THIS EVENING...SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 8 FT. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N106W TO 
07N115W TO 04N134W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 118W AND 121W.
  
...DISCUSSION...  

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS HAS WEAKENED TO A 
TROUGH...AND WILL FURTHER BECOME DIFFUSE THIS MORNING. 
ASSOCIATED NW SWELL HAS PEAKED AT 13 FT. COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 
12 FT COVER THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM 30N125W TO 20N132W. THE 
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WHILE SPREADING SE OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED SWELL WILL SUBSIDE 
BELOW 8 FT OVER THE NW WATERS WHILE SEAS TO 8 FT WILL SPREAD 
SOUTHEASTWARD TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 32N515W 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 24N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS 
ACROSS THE FAR W CENTRAL WATERS...ALONG WITH 8-10 FT SEAS IN 
MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL 
SHIFT CLOSER TO THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT THEN INTO THE AREA THU. 
THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THIS AREA. AS 
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS INTO THE AREA ON THU...THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND 
TROUGHING OVER WESTERN MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN 
WINDS OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE.

GAP WINDS... 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH TRADEWINDS INCREASING OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
WATERS...WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP IN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE. WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE ARE 
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE ADDED 
COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR GALE 
FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND LATE THU NIGHT. 

GULF OF PANAMA...THE STRONG TRADEWIND FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
WATERS WILL FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS IN THE 20-25 
KT RANGE WILL AFFECT THE GULF OF PANAMA LATE THU NIGHT.

$$
AL