000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260232
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC WED MAR 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EASTWARD N OF THE 
CHIVELA PASS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY POURING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING FROM THE HIGH 
RESOLUTION RAP MODEL INDICATES THAT IT IS TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT 
TO NOT ISSUE A GALE WARNING BEGINNING AT 03 UTC AND ENDING 
AROUND 12 UTC WED WITH A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE 
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES 
OF MEXICO AND 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT TROUGHING OVER 
INTERIOR MEXICO. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 
WED AFTERNOON WITH RESIDUAL SEAS SUBSIDING FROM A PEAK OF 11 FT 
TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THEN AS WELL.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N108W TO 
07N120W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 119W AND 121W...AND ALSO 
WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 123W AND 126W.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N80W TO 06N87W TO 05N94W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 84W AND 90W...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 84W AND 87W.
  
...DISCUSSION...  

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT WAS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS HAS DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 
SET OF ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WITH SEAS OF 8-13 FT EXTENDS ACROSS 
THE WATERS N OF A LINE FROM 20N140W TO 20N135W TO 30N127W. THE 
SET OF NW SWELL WILL COVER THE AREA N OF A LINE FROM 20N140W  TO 
20N125W TO 30N116W BY 24 HOURS REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE 
MAX SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SUBSIDE TO 11 FT. THE BACK EDGE OF 
THE SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT OVER THE NW CORNER BY 48 
HOURS WHILE THE LEADING EDGE OF SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER SPREADS 
SOUTHWARD TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS WILL 
ALSO SET UP WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA N OF 25N BY 48 HOURS.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS S OF THE NOW DISSIPATED FRONT 
AND N OF THE ITCZ WHICH IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES 
ACROSS THE FAR W CENTRAL WATERS...ALONG WITH 8-10 FT SEAS IN 
MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT EASTERN EXPANSION IN 
COVERAGE. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT...THEN TO 20-25 KT 
LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA TIGHTENS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT DURING THE 
STRONGEST WINDS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SET UP LATE WED 
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS COLOMBIAN LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY 
WESTWARD INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE LEE OF PANAMA.

$$
LEWITSKY