000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240906
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAR 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N88W TO 04N105W TO 06N115W TO 05N125W TO 
06N135W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 88W AND 
96W.
  
...DISCUSSION...  

WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE 
AREA NEAR 31N129W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 19N112W. A 
COLD FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND LOWER PRESSURE IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES 
W OF 115W AND N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 20N. NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH 
SHORT PERIOD NE TRADEWIND SWELL TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT 
FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 129W. 

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY AS THE COLD 
FRONT TO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF 
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLIGHTLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT N OF THE ITCZ TO STRENGTHEN WINDS WITH 20 TO 25 KT 
TRADEWINDS EXPECTED FROM 10N TO 19N W OF 130W BY LATE TONIGHT. 
THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELLS WITH 
COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PART OF 
THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. COMBINED SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS SWELL WILL PEAK NEAR 12-13 FT EARLY TUE MORNING THROUGH TUE 
EVENING. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN WATERS...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE WATERS 
W OF LINE FROM 30N126W TO 19N132W BY LATE TUE NIGHT.
  
GAP WINDS...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE NIGHT. THIS 
WILL INCREASE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT EARLY 
TUE NIGHT. WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW...WINDS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH NEAR GALE FORCE LATE TUE 
NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. 
 

$$
AL