000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC SAT MAR 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 08N120W 
TO 14N119W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 
NM E OF TROUGH AXIS. THE ITCZ FORMS NEAR THE TROUGH AT 08N123W 
AND WIGGLES W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ TO W OF 
134W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
OVER...AND JUST OFFSHORE THE THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITHIN 75 NM 
OF 07N78W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF 09N108W. 
   
...DISCUSSION...  

.AN UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF THE CONUS AND 
CONTINUES INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N120W TO 24N120W. AN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH 
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO A GENTLE CREST OVER SOUTHERN 
ARIZONA. DENSE CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NE ACROSS THE 
RIDGE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE PACIFIC AT 
20N120W TO BEYOND 32N100W OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. ANOTHER AREA OF 
DEBRIS MOISTURE IS MOVING E...IN NEARLY UPPER ZONAL FLOW... 
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 25N W OF 123W...WITH SOME 
MOISTURE ALSO ADVECTED E ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA.
 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 07N140W AND 
IS PROVIDING THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE FOR THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY 
DESCRIBED ALONG THE ITCZ. 

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 06N112W WITH AN 
AREA OF WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE INDUCED BETWEEN THIS CYCLONE AND 
THE UPPER TROPICAL RIDGE JUST DESCRIBED TO THE W...AND ENHANCING 
THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TO THE E OF THE LOW LEVEL 
TROUGH NEAR 10N120W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF 
THE CYCLONE IS ALSO SUPPORTING THE SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 
09N108W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 
32N127W TO NEAR 17N107W. A SURFACE RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW ACROSS 
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N135W TO 
2N140W. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF THIS RIDGE IS ONLY AT 15-20 
KT...BUT COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN MIXED NW AND NE SWELL ARE 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A FEW HOURS NW OF A LINE FROM 32N135W TO 
29N140W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE 
SUBSIDING. TO THE S OF THE RIDGE THE NE TRADES ARE AT 15-20 KT 
ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 07-13N BETWEEN 118-136W WITH 
SEAS 7-8 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED NW...NE AND SE SWELL. THESE 
ENHANCED AREA OF SEAS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W TO ACROSS THE AREA 
FROM 08-16N W OF 135W LATE TONIGHT...AND FROM 12-19N W OF 134W 
LATE SAT NIGHT.
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT TO JUST AFTER SUNRISE 
ON SUN IN...AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS 
NOCTURNAL EVENT WILL REPEAT ON SUN NIGHT INTO SUNRISE ON MON. 
THE GRADIENT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A MAXIMUM 15-20 KT 
DRAINAGE ON MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A 
MUCH STRONGER EVENT ON WED NIGHT.

$$
NELSON