000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210911
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC FRI MAR 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
              
THERE IS NO MONSOON TROUGH PRESENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N90W 
TO 07N110W TO 05N121W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 110W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...  

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 
43N134W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N110W. THE DISTANCE OF 
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FROM THE ITCZ IS KEEPING A LOOSE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPORTING MODERATE 
TO FRESH TRADES BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ITCZ. 
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO 
PREVAIL. 

NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH COMBINED 
SEAS REACHING 8 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 121W AND 130W...AND ALSO IN 
THE REGION OF FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM WHERE THE NW SWELL IS MIXING 
WITH SHORTER PERIOD TRADEWIND SWELL FROM 07N TO 21N W OF 132W. 
THE NW SWELL OVER THE N PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUBSIDE 
BELOW 8 FT BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE TRADEWIND SWELL WILL CONTINUE 
TO MIX WITH NW SWELL TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE 
AREA N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 18N AND W OF 130W THROUGH AT LEAST 
LATE SAT NIGHT. 
 
GAP WINDS...

LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED OVER 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO NEAR 
GALE FORCE AND SEAS TO 10 FT BY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE 
ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS AND SEAS WILL 
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 
THIS EVENING. 

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL FUNNEL THROUGH 
THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WITH THE ADDED 
COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...WINDS WILL PULSE TO 25 KT 
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
 
$$
AL