000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED MAR 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... NO MONSOON TROUGH IS EVIDENT. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N90W TO 09N103W TO 04N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC TODAY WITH HIGHEST WINDS ONLY AT A STRONG BREEZE AND HIGHEST SEAS OF ONLY 9 FEET. A MODEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS DUE TO A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION IN COMBINATION WITH LOW PRESSURES ALONG THE ITCZ. NE TRADEWINDS REMAIN AT MODERATE TO FREEZE BREEZE CONDITIONS...THOUGH THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL ARE PRODUCING WAVEHEIGHTS OF 8 FEET ALONG 10N W OF 135W AND BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. THE SAME NW SWELL IS INDUCING WAVEHEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FT WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. BY THURSDAY...THIS NW SWELL GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND CONDITIONS DROP BELOW OUR 8 FT THRESHOLD. A NEW NW SWELL WAVETRAIN IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NW CORNER OF OUR AREA. THIS LONG-PERIOD 15-18 SECOND SWELL WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD BUT ONLY BRING WAVEHEIGHT OF ABOUT 8 FT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE RECEDING. A DISSIPATING 1012 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ARE LOCATED NEAR 150W WEST OF OUR AREA. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ADVECTING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS EAST- NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA INCLUDING ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITH THIS LARGE BAND OF MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE GRIDDED FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING FOR THE WINDS BLENDED IN THE 00Z ECMWF INTO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS THIS MORNING REACHES THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...THIS WILL INDUCE A GAP WIND EVENT THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FORCING BEHIND IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE GALE CONDITIONS. PEAK CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE ECMWF...NAVGEM...AND NAM SUGGESTING 25 KT AND THE GFS AND UKMET A BIT HIGHER AT 30 KT. NOTABLY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE DOES NOT INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR GALE CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL LIKELY PEAK AROUND 10 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS NORTHERLY GAP WIND EVENT SHOULD TERMINATE. THE FOLLOWING TEHUANTEPEC EVENT MAY COMMENCE NEXT WEDNESDAY. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS INDUCING A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT. CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. AS IS TYPICAL...THE EVENT WILL BE DIURNALLY FLUCTUATING WITH WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH PEAK CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS STRONGEST WITH WINDS PEAKING AT 30 KT...FOLLOWED BY THE NAVGEM AND NAM AT 25 KT...WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF ONLY REACHING 20 KT. CURRENTLY...THE FORECAST IS CALLING FOR THE NEAR GALE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR...THOUGH THIS MAY BE REVISITED LATER TODAY IF THE 12Z GFS BACKS OFF AS WELL. CONTINUED PERIODIC GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY. $$ LANDSEA