000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190956 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED MAR 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... NO MONSOON TROUGH IS EVIDENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N91W TO 09N105W TO 07N115W TO 07N126W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS NEAR 06N115W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NNE FROM IT TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SW U.S. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS PRESENT TO ITS E AND W. THE RIDGE TO ITS E IS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST S OF COSTA RICA. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS KEEPING ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS RELATIVLEY STABLE THROUGHOUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW PORTION WHERE AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MOSTLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD TO THE N OF 17N AND W OF 129W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 17N AND W OF 135W. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN AND NE PORTIONS N OF 22N. DEEP MOISTURE AND RELATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OBSERVED THE PAST FEW DAYS TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW HAS JUST ABOUT ENTIRELY DISSIPATED. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SEEN WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM OF THE LOW. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SMALL ISOLATED WEAK TSTMS ARE CONFINED TO AN AREA FROM 02N-07N AND BETWEEN 84W-90W. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL LIFT N THU...AND DISSIPATE BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY ZONAL BY THAT TIME WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TROUGHS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE DISCUSSION AREA ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH W OF THE AREA CURRENTLY JUST SE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS ON THU. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS SEWD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N133W AND TO NEAR 21N118W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 118W. A WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N102W TO 09.5N107W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF 14N102W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK IN A WESTWARD DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT WIND EVENT THROUGH THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE EARLY ON THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE WESTERN GULF INDUCES A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. GFS AND NAM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS GRADIENT SET UP WILL LEAD TO N WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INITIALLY BE LESS THAN 8 FT. BY FRI NIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 9 OR 10 FT...AND N-NE WINDS INCREASE FURTHER TO 25-30 KT WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W. N-NE WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE EXPECTED IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N95.5W WITH 8 FT SEAS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL INTERACT TO WITH GENERALLY LOWER PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND NW COLOMBIA TO INDUCE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT THE GULF THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY THU NIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 30 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WESTWARD TO NEAR 91W BY EARLY ON FRI. $$ AGUIRRE