000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170249
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

THE TAIL END OF A WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY AIR BEHIND THE 
FRONT WILL SPILL S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NLY 
WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO BLAST QUICKLY THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY ON MON AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE STARTING 
LATE MON MORNING. SEAS THERE ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10 FT BY 
AROUND NOON...AND TO 13 FT BY LATE MON NIGHT. THIS GALE EVENT 
WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AS IT IS EXPECTED TO LAST TO DAYBREAK 
TUE BEFORE WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE 
TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N94W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
04N100W TO 05N115W TO 04N125W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 15N BETWEEN 108W AND 119W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW 
CORNER N OF 20N AND W OF 130W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
CENTERED NEAR 17N122W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS WITHIN 900 NM E 
OF THE LOW...ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE ITCZ...AND 
PRODUCING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE E OF THE CENTER. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E PACIFIC E OF 105W WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE OVER S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT THE UPPER 
LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY E THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO ELONGATE AND 
SHIFT S. 

AT THE SURFACE... A 1014 MB LOW IS JUST W OF THE NW CORNER AT 
28N146W WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. A 1028 MB HIGH 
REMAINS N OF THE AREA AT 35N130W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE TO 
18N118W. A BROAD ZONE OF NE TO E TRADES 15-20 KT PREVAILS TO THE 
S OF THE HIGH...FROM THE ITCZ N TO 20N AND W OF 114W. LARGE NW 
SWELL WITH COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT HAS MOVED THROUGH 
THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG A LINE FROM 30N120W 
TO 20N130W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE S AND SE ACROSS THE AREA REACHING FROM NEAR 24N113W TO 
14N117W BY LATE MON NIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 10 FT.

OTHER GAP WINDS...A SUBSTANTIAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT 
OVER FAR NW MEXICO AND THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS 
INDUCED STRONG NW WINDS OF 25-30 KT THROUGH THE GULF...WITH SEAS 
BUILDING 8-10 FT ACROSS S AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS. WINDS WILL 
RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT EARLY ON MON AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM 
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTS E OF 90W.

$$
FORMOSA