000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

A COLD FRONT OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING THROUGH MON...AND IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING E 
ACROSS N MISSISSIPPI. COOL AND DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL 
SPILL S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...AND TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NLY WINDS OF 20-30 
KT ARE EXPECTED TO BLAST QUICKLY THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
EARLY ON MON AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE STARTING LATE MON 
MORNING. SEAS THERE ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10 FT BY AROUND 
NOON...AND TO 13 FT BY LATE MON NIGHT. THIS GALE EVENT WILL BE 
RATHER SHORT-LIVED AS IT IS EXPECTED TO LAST TO DAYBREAK TUE 
BEFORE WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N94W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
04N100W TO 04N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS  
FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 106W AND 119W.  

...DISCUSSION... 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW 
CORNER N OF 20N AND W OF 130W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
CENTERED NEAR 17N122W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS WITHIN 900 NM E 
OF THE LOW...ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE ITCZ...AND 
PRODUCING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE E OF THE CENTER. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E PACIFIC E OF 105W WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE OVER S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT THE UPPER 
LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY E THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO ELONGATE AND 
SHIFT S. 

AT THE SURFACE... 
A 1015 MB LOW IS JUST W OF THE NW CORNER AT 
28N145W WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. A 1030 MB HIGH 
REMAINS N OF THE AREA AT 35N129W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE TO 
18N118W. A BROAD ZONE OF NE TO E TRADES 15-20 KT PREVAILS TO THE 
S OF THE HIGH...FROM THE ITCZ N TO 20N AND W OF 114W. LARGE NW 
SWELL WITH COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT HAS MOVED THROUGH 
THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG A LINE FROM 30N120W 
TO 20N130W TO 08N130W TO 06N140W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE S AND SE ACROSS THE AREA REACHING FROM NEAR 24N113W TO 
14N117W BY LATE MON NIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 10 FT.

OTHER GAP WINDS...                                               
A SUBSTANTIAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT OVER FAR NW MEXICO 
AND THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS INDUCED STRONG NW WINDS 
OF 25-30 KT THROUGH THE GULF...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT ACROSS 
S AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 
KT EARLY ON MON AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO 
SHIFTS E OF 90W.

$$
FORMOSA