000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161619
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS MORNING 
IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON  
THROUGH MON...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM MOVING E ACROSS ARKANSAS. COOL AND DRY AIR BEHIND THE 
FRONT WILL SPILL S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NLY 
WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO BLAST QUICKLY THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY ON MON AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE STARTING 
LATE MON MORNING. SEAS THERE ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10 FT BY 
AROUND NOON...AND TO 13 FT BY LATE MON NIGHT. THIS NEXT GALE 
EVENT WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AS IT IS EXPECTED TO LAST TO 
DAYBREAK TUE BEFORE WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT. SEAS 
WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOONAL CIRCULATION REMAINS NON-EXISTENT ACROSS THE AREA.  
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N91W TO 03N116W TO 05N130W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 05N TO 09.5N BETWEEN 104W AND 
120W.  

...DISCUSSION... 

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDS SW 
ACROSS THE SW U.S. TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A WEAKENING 
MID LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 24N124W. IMMEDIATELY TO THE S OF THIS 
CYCLONE LIES A CUT OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER CYCLONE LINGERING ACROSS 
THE AREA NEAR 15N125W AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT 
E. TO THE NW A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED. DUE S OF THIS 
WEAKENING CUT OFF LOW...AN UPPER CYCLONE PERSISTS SOUTH OF THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 08S182W AND REMAINS IN PHASE WITH ITS NORTHERN HEMI 
LOW TO PRODUCE A BROAD ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL EQUATORIAL 
WLYS...INCLUDING STRONG WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE W OF 
123W...WHILE THE WLY FLOW BECOME DIFFLUENT E OF 123W AND 
CONTINUES TO VENTILATE SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ 
DESCRIBED ABOVE.  THE NORTHERN LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY E 
THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO ELONGATE AND SHIFT S. THUS THIS 
AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 
MON MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GENERALLY PREVAILS ACROSS SE 
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH REMAINS WELL N OF THE AREA AT 
35N129W WITH A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 173N108W. A BROAD ZONE OF NE TO 
E TRADES 15-20 KT PREVAILS TO THE S OF THE HIGH...FROM THE ITCZ 
N TO 20N AND W OF 114W. LARGE NW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS 
OF 8 TO 12 FT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA ALONG A LINE FROM 30N122W TO 25N129W TO 15N133W TO 12N140W. 
THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE S AND SE ACROSS THE AREA 
REACHING FROM NEAR 24N113W TO 14N117W BY LATE MON NIGHT WITH 
COMBINED SEAS TO 10 FT.

OTHER GAP WINDS...                                               
A SUBSTANTIAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT OVER FAR NW MEXICO 
AND THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS INDUCED STRONG NW WINDS 
OF 25-30 KT THROUGH THE GULF THIS MORNING...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-
10 FT ACROSS S AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS TODAY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY 
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT EARLY ON MON AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTS E OF 90W.

$$
STRIPLING