000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161004
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARDS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY 
THROUGH MON. A COOL AND AIR MASS FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE 
FRONT WILL SPILL S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LEADING 
TO THE ONSET OF STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS NORTHERLY WINDS 
STARTING EARLY MON AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE FORCE 
WINDS...N WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC EARLY ON MON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10 FT IN 
GULF EARLY ON MON...AND TO 13 FT BY LATE MON NIGHT. THIS NEXT 
GALE EVENT WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AS IT IS EXPECTED TO LAST 
TO DAYBREAK TUE BEFORE WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT. SEAS 
WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N98W TO 05N111W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
05N111W TO 03N124W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-
111W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW THE U.S. TO SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO 22N120W...AND TO AN UPPER LOW AT 16N127W. THE 
TROUGH CONTINUES SE TO NEAR 08N121W. TO ITS NW...BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS WITHIN 900 NM 
E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE E OF TROUGH BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING CHANNELED EASTWARD 
TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICO AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD 
UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION. THE ASSOCIATED 
ANTICYCLONE IS MOVING NE AT 07.5N98W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS E 
OF THIS ANTICYCLONE ALONG 93W WHILE A RIDGE IS OF THE TROUGH 
ALONG 05N...E TO A SMALL ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE COAST OF  
COLOMBIA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR E OF 
ABOUT 101W WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 04N-12N 
AND E OF 101W.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH IS WELL N OF THE AREA AT 36N128W 
WITH A RIDGE SW THROUGH 32N133W TO NEAR 23N140W. HIGH PRES 
COVERS THE AREA N OF ABOUT 15N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED ALONG A POSITION FROM 07N93W TO 02N97W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60-75 NM W OF THE TROUGH 
FROM 02N-06N. A LARGE NW SWELL TRAIN WITH COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS 
OF 8 TO 11 FT HAS ARRIVED OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA ALONG A LINE FROM 32N129W TO 16N140W. THIS SWELL TRAIN WILL 
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE AREA REACHING FROM NEAR 24N113W 
TO 14N117W BY LATE MON NIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 10 FT.

OTHER GAP WINDS...                                               
A SUBSTANTIAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT OVER FAR NW 
MEXICO AND THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL LEAD TO NW WINDS 
OF 25-30 KT THROUGH THE GULF FROM 25-30 KT TODAY...AND NW 20-25 
KT WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 8 
FT...HOWEVER WITH A GRADUAL BUILDING TREND THROUGH TONIGHT AT 
WHICH TIME NW 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM 25N-27N. WINDS 
RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT EARLY ON MON. 

N WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA...AND S TO 06N 
WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 
FT.

$$

AGUIRRE