000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160241
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARDS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. A GALE IS FORECAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTING SUN 
NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE 
DENSER AIRMASS THAT IS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 20-25 
KT WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE FORECAST FOR MON AFTERNOON OR 
17/1800 UTC. GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT ARE FORECAST 
TO BE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N96W... 
INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MON EVENING OR 18/0000 UTC. 
THE GALE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD TERMINATE BY 
TUE OR 18/1200 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N85W TO 08N91W TO 03N100W TO 05N115W TO 
03N125W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 02N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 104W AND 118W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS ENTERED THE NW 
CORNER WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE WESTERN AREA WITH AXIS FROM THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT 
30N114W TO 10N133W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS WITHIN 900 NM E OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS. THE DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ITCZ IS SIGNIFICANTLY 
ENHANCING CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE E OF TROUGH BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS BETWEEN 95W AND 
110W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS E OF 95W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE S 
OF 20N OVER S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 

ON THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS JUST N OF THE AREA AT 
36N129W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE NW AREA N OF 15N AND W OF 
115W. AN AREA OF 20 KT OR LESS TRADEWINDS WITH 8 FT NW SWELL IS 
FROM 06N TO 10N W OF 130W. A NEW NW SWELL TRAIN HAS ENTERED THE 
NW CORNER WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 12 FT AND WILL MERGE WITH THE 
EXISTING TRADEWINDS SUN EVENING.

OTHER GAP WINDS...

DEEP LAYERED LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS NW TEXAS 
THIS EVENING AND SHIFT E THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WILL HELP IN 
DEVELOPING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA STARTING THIS EVENING...WHEN NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT 
WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FULL LENGTH OF THE GULF. SEAS 
WILL BUILD TO 9 FT. THESE CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN QUICKLY BEGIN TO ABATE BY MON. 

A PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE GULF 
OF PANAMA TONIGHT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA. SEAS 
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON SUN EVENING. 

$$
FORMOSA