000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152157
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N85W TO 08N91W TO 03N100W TO 05N115W TO 
03N125W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 02N 
TO 09N BETWEEN 103W AND 120W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS ENTERED THE NW 
CORNER WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE WESTERN AREA WITH AXIS FROM THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT 
30N114W TO 10N133W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS WITHIN 900 NM E OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS. THE DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ITCZ IS SIGNIFICANTLY 
ENHANCING CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE E OF TROUGH BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS BETWEEN 95W AND 
110W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS E OF 95W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE S 
OF 20N OVER S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 

ON THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH IS JUST N OF THE AREA AT 
36N128W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE NW AREA N OF 15N AND W OF 
115W. AN AREA OF 20 KT OR LESS TRADEWINDS WITH 8 FT NW SWELL IS 
FROM 05N TO 10N W OF 128W AND GROWING IS SIZE. A NEW NW SWELL 
TRAIN HAS ENTERED THE NW CORNER WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 10 FT AND 
WILL MERGE WITH THE EXISTING TRADEWINDS SUN EVENING.


GAP WINDS...

DEEP LAYERED LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS NW TEXAS 
THIS EVENING AND SHIFT E THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WILL HELP IN 
DEVELOPING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA STARTING THIS EVENING...WHEN NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT 
WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FULL LENGTH OF THE GULF. SEAS 
WILL BUILD TO 9 FT. THESE CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN QUICKLY BEGIN TO ABATE BY MON. 

 A PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE 
GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA. 
SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON SUN 
EVENING. 

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL PULSE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS SUN WITH SEAS 
LESS THAN 8 FT. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY SUN EVENING. 

ANOTHER GALE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON 
MON EVENING AS THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF 
OF MEXICO.

$$
FORMOSA