000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151610
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOONAL CIRCULATION REMAINS NON-EXISTENT. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
07.5N87W TO 03N98W TO 05N107W TO 03N125W TO 02N130W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST FROM 
02N TO 05N E OF 79W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
NOTED FROM 01N TO 10N BETWEEN 101W AND 120W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA 
TODAY. 

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE SW U.S. SW ACROSS THE 
FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SW TO 24N124W TO A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 14N136W. A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC UPPER CYCLONE 
LIES ABOUT 1400 NM TO THE S-SE OF THIS MID TO UPPER CYCLONE AND 
CONTINUES TO CREATE A BROAD ZONE OF STRONG EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES 
AT UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES...CAUSING VERY STRONG 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...JUST TO THE 
EAST OF THIS EQUATORIAL ZONE...BETWEEN ABOUT 108W AND 122W... 
UPPER DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED 
CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE...ALONG AND WELL TO THE N OF THE 
ITCZ. 

TO THE NW...SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE AREA WITH A MEAN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM W OF THE AREA 
AT 144W...NEWD TO 24N140W TO 32N133W...AND TO WELL NE OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY E 
DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WHEN THE UPPER CYCLONE IS EXPECTED 
TO MOVE TO ALONG 120W. 


OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...A NEGATIVELY TILT TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM NEAR 15N102W SE TO A BROAD BASE JUST S OF THE 
EQUATOR AT 96W. 

AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE 
AREA...WITH A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N130W AND RIDGE SE TO 
NEAR 15N105W. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SAME HIGH SW TO W 
OF THE AREA AT 28N140W. NE TRADE WINDS OF 15-25 KT PREVAIL N OF 
THE ITCZ TO 18N W OF 112W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 7 TO 9 FT IN 
NW SWELLS. THESE TRADES WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. BY 48 HOURS...NW SWELL PROPAGATING THROUGH THE AREA WILL 
INCREASE TO 8-12 FT. ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA.
 
GAP WINDS...                                                     
NE WINDS 20-25 KT CONTINUED THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO TO 90W AND ARE FORECAST TO ABATE TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 
EARLY THIS EVENING. 

N WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AND S TO 05N 
BETWEEN 78W-80W WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

DEEP LAYERED LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS NW TEXAS 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SHIFT E THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND 
WILL HELP IN DEVELOPING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA STARTING THIS EVENING...WHEN NW WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE FULL LENGTH OF THE GULF. 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT BY EARLY SUN WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. THESE CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN QUICKLY BEGIN TO ABATE BY EARLY 
MON. 

$$
STRIPLING