000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141603 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI MAR 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... THE LAST SCATTEROMETER PASSES AND ALTIMETER PASSES SHOWED GALE- FORCE WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 14 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN GALE-FORCE. SHORT PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT PRODUCED BY THE PLUME OF GALE- FORCE WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 102W DURING THE DAY TODAY...BEFORE DECAYING TO LESS THAN FEET TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE- FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A WEAK ITCZ IS ALONG 05N86W 04N94W 05N106W 04N123W 02N133W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 04N78W...FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 96W AND 97W...AND FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 118W AND 127W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO POSSIBLY STRONG GAP WINDS TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT THE SAME FRESH TO POSSIBLY STRONG GAP WINDS ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO FROM NOW. THE GRADIENT FLOW HAS INCREASED ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING INTO THE AREA THAT IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN EARLIER. A PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS IS POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA TO THE SOUTH OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS ENHANCED NE TRADES OFF THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA FUNNEL THROUGH THE ISTHMUS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE AREA OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 94W AND 112W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 96W AND 97W. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BUT REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...ALLOWING MODEST CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO PULSE ALONG THE ITCZ BOUNDARY DURING THAT TIME. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N131W TO 25N131W BEYOND 12N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W...AND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 128W AND 133W. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD...REACHING FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TO 15N130W BY LATE SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER RIDGING FOLLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD EASTWARD...STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 35N130W INTO SUNDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 05N TO 18N TO THE WEST OF 125W FROM TODAY INTO SUNDAY. INCREASED LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL COMPENSATE FOR DIMINISHING UPPER DIVERGENCE AROUND THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH TO MAINTAIN CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ TO THE WEST OF 120W THIS WEEKEND. THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. $$ MT