000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140922 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI MAR 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING... A 0400 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED 30 TO 35 KT WINDS WERE STILL ACTIVE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL MAINTAIN WINDS TO GALE FORCE THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MIGRATES EASTWARD. SEAS ARE LIKELY AS HIGH AS 14 FT WITHIN THE PLUME OF GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR 14N96W. SHORT PERIOD NE SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT PRODUCED BY THE PLUME WILL EXPAND OVER THE AREA FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 102W BY AFTERNOON BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT THROUGH SUN...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN NIGHT AS THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A VERY WEAK ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N95W TO 02N107W TO 05N120W TO 01N140W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND TOGA-TAO BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS ALONG THE ITCZ TO BE 10 KT OR LESS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. ...DISCUSSION... ASIDE FROM THE ONGOING GALE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE OTHER MAJOR WEATHER ISSUE IS THE LIKELIHOOD FRESH TO POSSIBLY STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING. GRADIENT FLOW IS INCREASING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN EARLIER. OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL MIX A PLUME OF FRESH TO POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER BRIEF PULSE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SIMILARLY...A PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS IS POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA TO THE SOUTH OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS ENHANCED NE TRADES OFF THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA FUNNEL THROUGH THE ISTHMUS. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PARKED FROM 10N110W TO 00N100W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT PULSES OF SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE VERY WEAK AND BARELY DISCERNIBLE ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BUT REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...ALLOWING MODEST CONVECTION TO PULSE ALONG THE ITCZ BOUNDARY THROUGH THAT PERIOD. FARTHER WEST...A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST FROM 07N TO 15N W OF 125W. THIS ACTIVITY IS DUE TO DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 10N145W. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD...REACHING FROM NW MEXICO TO 15N130W BY LATE SUN. MEANWHILE DEEP LAYER RIDGING FOLLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD EASTWARD...STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 35N130W INTO SUNDAY. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 06N TO 15N W OF 125W FROM LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY. INCREASED LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL COMPENSATE FOR DIMINISHING UPPER DIVERGENCE AROUND THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH TO MAINTAIN CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 120W THIS WEEKEND. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. $$ CHRISTENSEN