000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131536
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY 
THROUGH 1500 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE DENSER AIRMASS THAT IS BEHIND 
THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE FORECAST IS THAT NORTHERLY WINDS 
REACHING GALE FORCE WILL DEVELOP...AND SEA HEIGHTS WILL BUILD AS 
HIGH AS 15 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL 
DIMINISH GRADUALLY INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS 
BEHIND THE FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
MEXICO. SHORT PERIOD 8 TO 10 FT NE SWELL THAT IS GENERATED FROM 
THE GALES WILL COVER THE AREA FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 
103W ON FRIDAY. THE NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL MIX WITH LONGER 
PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL. THIS WILL DECAY BELOW 8 FEET THROUGH 
FRIDAY NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG GAP 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT 
WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 05N89W 04N93W 01N100W 02N105W. 
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N105W TO 03N110W 03N120W TO 02N126W. 
EXTENDS FROM 06N85W TO 02N100W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY 
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR 
LESS ALONG PARTS OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 87W AND 
88W...FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 89W AND 90W...AND FROM 02N TO 04N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N 
BETWEEN 96W AND 101W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO STARTING AT 18 
HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CONTINUING TO 30 HOURS OR SO 
INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BUILDING 
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE THE TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE WINDS WILL 
FILTER INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY 
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING BRIEFLY TO 8 FEET DOWNSTREAM...WITH 
ADDED OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE IMPACTS. A PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP 
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA FROM FRIDAY AFTER 
SUNRISE INTO SATURDAY AFTER SUNRISE...PUSHING TO THE SOUTH OF 
THE AZUERO PENINSULA. 
 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION 
IS FROM 07N TO 17N W OF 134W. THIS IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO DIVERGENCE 
ALOFT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH...THAT IS 
ALONG 32N132W TO 23N142W TO 10N147W. 

GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE NORTHERN 
PART OF THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA 
THROUGH SATURDAY...CUTTING OFF A WEAKENING UPPER LOW NEAR 
15N135W. THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED OVER THE DEEP 
TROPICS TO THE WEST OF 130W INTO THIS WEEKEND.
 
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 
120W ON FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. 
STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL 
ALLOW INCREASED TRADE WIND FLOW FROM 07N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 
125W ON FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY. 

FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BUILD 
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING 
INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM SUNDAY 
INTO MONDAY.

$$
MT