000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122113
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS 
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. THE DENSER AIRMASS 
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THU MORNING. THIS AIRMASS 
WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN NLY WINDS REACHING TO 
GALE FORCE STRENGTH WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT BY EARLY THU 
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO FRI 
AS THE HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO 03N96W TO 02N104W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 02N104W TO 03N118W TO 02N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W.

...DISCUSSION... 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW 
CORNER N OF 10N AND W OF 130W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH E OF 
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG 147W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS FROM 10N-
22N W OF 130W. ELSEWHERE...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
NEAR 30N128W WITH SOME DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER TO N BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 110W FROM 02N TO 
20N. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
AXIS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS E OF 105W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
OVER MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  

ON THE SURFACE...SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE NW AREA N OF 15N 
AND W OF 115W. A NEW NW SWELL TRAIN HAS ENTERED THE NW CORNER 
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THIS SWELL WILL MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
AND REMAIN N OF 28N. ELSEWHERE AN AREA OF 20 KT OR LESS 
TRADEWINDS IS FORECAST FOR FRI AFTERNOON FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 
129W AND 137W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. 
 
OTHER GAP WINDS...                                               
THE HIGH PRES THAT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING 
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL INITIATE FRESH TO STRONG 
GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THU NIGHT INTO FRI 
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER PULSE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. 
SIMILARLY...STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL 
PUSH THROUGH PANAMA FRI INTO SAT.

$$
FORMOSA