000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112114
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO WED...AND WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE WED 
NIGHT/EARLY THU. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC LATE WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO NEAR 
45 KT BY THU MORNING AS THE COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT 
PUSHES THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 FT BY THU EVENING. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N90W 
TO 02N93W TO 01N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 88W AND 94W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 100W AND 108W. 

...DISCUSSION...

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW 
CORNER N OF 20N AND W OF 130W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT 
PRESENTLY HAS REACHED 30N152W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 16N120W WITH SOME DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER. 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS E OF 110W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER 
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  
 
ON THE SURFACE...SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE NW AREA N OF 25 AND 
W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 20N. 
THIS AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH AT LEAST THU MORNING. A DECAYING SET OF NW SWELLS IS 
MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS W OF 110W. A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS WILL 
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY WED MORNING WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT NW 
OF LINE 30N136W TO 28N140W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD S 
AND E WITH SEAS TO 9 FT COVERING THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 
30N122W TO 22N140W BY THU MORNING. 
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL 
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THU EVENING AS THE AREA 
OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 
TUE NIGHT...BEFORE BUILDING TO 3-5 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS 
WED AS WINDS INCREASE.

GAP WINDS...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS 
THE GULFS OF FONSECA...PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA THROUGH EARLY THU. 
WINDS WILL FRESHEN IN PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL 
BE PRIMARILY 3-5 FT.

$$
FORMOSA