000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111504
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO WED...AND WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE WED 
NIGHT/EARLY THU. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC LATE WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO NEAR 
45 KT BY THU MORNING AS THE COLD DENSE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT 
PUSHES THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N90W 
TO 02N93W TO 00N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 
94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1032 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 42N130W 
WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 21N113W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 20N. THIS AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THU MORNING. A 
DECAYING SET OF NW SWELLS IS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS W OF 
110W. SEAS REACHING 8 FT COVER MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 
115W...EXCEPT FOR THE NW WATERS. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO 
SUBSIDE AND COMBINED SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWELL WILL FALL 
BELOW 8 FT BY LATE TONIGHT. A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS WILL MOVE 
INTO THE AREA BY WED MORNING WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT NW OF 
LINE 30N136W TO 28N140W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD S 
AND E WITH SEAS TO 9 FT COVERING THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 
30N122W TO 22N140W BY THU MORNING. 
 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL 
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT EARLY THU AS THE AREA OF 
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE 
NIGHT...BEFORE BUILDING TO 3-5 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WED 
AS WINDS INCREASE.

GAP WINDS...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS 
THE GULFS OF FONSECA...PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA THROUGH EARLY THU. 
WINDS WILL FRESHEN IN PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL 
BE PRIMARILY 3-5 FT.

$$
AL