000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102129
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N118W 
TO 08N136W TO BEYOND 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS N OF THE AREA LOCATED NEAR 
39N133W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR POINT 
CONCEPTION CALIFORNIA TO 30N130W THEN IS DISSIPATING STATIONARY 
TO 27N140W WHERE IT CONTINUES W OF 140W AS A REMNANT TROUGH. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AS INDICATED BY A RECENT WINDSAT 
SCATTEROMETER PASS. SEAS ARE ALSO UP TO 11 FT W OF THE FRONT AS 
SAMPLED BY EARLIER ALTIMETER PASSES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE 
COMPLETELY TONIGHT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ALLOWING 
FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS.

AN ASSOCIATED SET OF NW SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8-
10 FT IS NOW WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
WITH THE EDGE OF THE 8 FT SEAS REACHING ALL THE WAY TO A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM 30N116W TO 05N140W. THIS SET OF NW SWELL WILL 
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT TUE NIGHT.

A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE AT 30N140W TUE NIGHT...WITH 
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8-10 FT COVERING THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 
30N128W TO 25N140W BY THIS TIME WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS WILL 
PREVAIL THROUGH TUE NIGHT...BECOMING NW-N AT MODERATE TO FRESH 
LEVELS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF ON WED AS THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TIGHTENS. SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL 
DOMINATE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...BUILDING TO 3-5 FT N OF 28N WED AS 
WINDS INCREASE.

GAP WINDS...WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AND 
VARIABLE ACROSS THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA...PAPAGAYO 
AND PANAMA THROUGH WED...EXCEPT NE-E AT MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS 
IN PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING 
PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY 3-5 FT. LOOKING 
AHEAD...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING A 
STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WED THROUGH 
THU. A NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS POSSIBLE 
THU MORNING THROUGH SUNRISE FRI.

$$
LEWITSKY