000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101525
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 05N116W  
08N132W BEYOND 06N140W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 
05N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST 
OF 116W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS 
BETWEEN 130W AND 140W TO THE NORTH OF 20N. A STATIONARY FRONT 
PASSES THROUGH 30N131W TO 27N135W BEYOND 25N140W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N130W TO 28N135W TO 
20N142W. A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 38N137W. SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SHOW 
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS PERSISTING TO THE NORTHWEST OF 
THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE SUPPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH IS DAMPENING OUT WHILE IT IS TO THE EAST OF A MORE 
AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE 
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE 
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST 
WITH THE MEAN RIDGE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH. THE WIND 
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TODAY. A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL 
OF 8 TO 12 FEET CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE 
LEADING EDGE OF 8 FOOT SEAS IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM THE 
NORTHERN BAJA COAST TO 06N140W BY LATE TODAY. THE SWELL WILL 
DECAY LARGELY TO LESS THAN 8 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL 
MEXICO TO 22N110W TO 18N116W TO 14N123W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 103W AND 125W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE 
WINDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N. THESE 
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. 
 
THE WIND SPEEDS ARE DIMINISHING/HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE NORTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS TO THE 
NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN HAS BEEN DISSIPATING 
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CALIFORNIA. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH 
THAT IS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO HAS BEEN SUPPORTING RAINSHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
AND THE ADJACENT COAST OF SINALOA. 

GAP WINDS...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY THIS MORNING...TO 
FRESH TO STRONG IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HIGH PRESSURE IS 
BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO...BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT 
CURRENTLY IS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH AFTER 6 HOURS OR SO...AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
THROUGH TUESDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT FRESH GAP WIND FLOW MAY OCCUR 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING ALSO...AND AGAIN 
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  

$$
MT