000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092134
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM  
02N106W TO 06N119W...THEN RESUMES FROM 06N123W TO BEYOND 
04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO 26N140W WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH REACHING FROM 30N135W TO 23N140W. 1023 MB SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR 32N127W. 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS NW OF 
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR 34N147W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 
TIGHT ENOUGH BEHIND THE FRONT TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE 
WINDS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE INTO A REMNANT TROUGH BY 
THIS TIME TOMORROW...THEN WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH 
ASSOCIATED WINDS OVER THE AREA DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS. 

A SET OF NW SWELL WITH SEAS UP TO 13 FT W OF THE FRONT COVERS 
THE NW WATERS WITH THE EDGE OF SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING 
TO A LINE FROM 30N126W TO 15N140W. PEAK SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 11 
FT BY 24 HOURS...AND TO 9 FT BY 48 HOURS AS THE SWELL GRADUALLY 
DECAYS WHILE CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE TO THE SE.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 
20N. THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER 
THIS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 12N117W TO 07N120W. 
ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N 
WITHIN 120 NM W OF TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN  
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ASCAT AND ASCAT-B 
PASSES WERE CONFINED TO S OF 28N. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION 
WEAKENS...AND AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NW MEXICO 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. 
A NICE ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA S OF 28N. 

GAP WINDS...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC BY MON MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER 
EASTERN MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE 
W GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE THROUGH TUE. MEANWHILE WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY LIGHT 
AND VARIABLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IN FONSECA...PAPAGAYO... 
AND PANAMA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 
MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS DURING NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW LATE 
EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY 3-5 FT.

$$
LEWITSKY