000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N103W 
TO 06N120W TO BEYOND 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD APPROACHING THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST...WEAKENING A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 32N127W. THIS IS ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH ALONG THE 
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES. A PAIR OF ASCAT PASS FROM 04 UTC AND 
06 UTC INDICATE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 110W.  

THE ASCAT PASS FROM 04 UTC ALSO INDICATED THAT WINDS HAVE 
STARTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS 
MAY BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER. A SHARP AND AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH 
OVER NW MEXICO IS ALLOWING A SURFACE TROUGH TO FORM OVER THE 
BAJA PENINSULA TODAY...JUST AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT 
BASIN BUILDS E TO SE INTO FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE SOUTHWEST 
U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG DOWNSLOPING EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS 
THE SONORAN DESERT AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 
SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL PUSH THROUGH GAPS OVER THE CENTRAL 
AND NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. THE WINDS DIMINISH AS 
THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE SIERRA MADRE 
OCCIDENTAL LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS BARELY REACHING 8 FT OFF 
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...THE REMNANT OF LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL LINGERING IN THE AREA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A NEW 
PUSH OF NW SWELL IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA. AN ALTIMETER SHOWED 
SEAS TO ALMOST 13 FT NEAR 30N140W. THE NW SWELL WILL COVER THE 
AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N125W TO 13N140W BY LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON...AND FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 
05N140W BY LATE MON. A STALLING FRONT WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY 
BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY FROM 30N130W TO 20N140W...ACCOMPANIED 
BY FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW NEAR THE FRONT THAT WILL DIMINISH 
BELOW 20 KT THROUGH EARLY MON AS THE FRONT BECOMES A REMNANT 
TROUGH FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W TUE. 

OTHER PACIFIC GULF AREAS...WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IN TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA... 
PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING TO 
MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS DURING NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW LATE 
EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY 3-5 FT.

UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED PULSES OF SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 
115W. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN