000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC SAT MAR 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 05N90W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 03N103W TO 08N110W THEN RESUMES FROM 08N114W TO 
05N130W TO BEYOND 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1023 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N128W WITH A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N110W...AND TO THE SW TO NEAR 
23N140W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS WITH IT STRETCHING FROM NE TO SW THROUGH 30N140W. THIS 
FRONT IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE  
FAR NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MEANWHILE THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE ITCZ IS 
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ TO AROUND 20N. 
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DISSIPATING AS IT STRETCHES FROM 30N134W 
TO 27N140W BY LATE SUN MORNING...THEN WILL BECOME A REMNANT 
TROUGH AS IT EXTENDS FROM 30N130W TO 28N137W TO 25N140W BY LATE 
MON MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL 
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. NE-E WINDS W OF THE 
REMNANT TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG ON SUN INTO MON 
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE REGION TIGHTENS.

A NEW SET OF NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED 
ABOVE HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW WATERS...WITH COMBINED SEAS UP 
TO 12 FT NEAR 30N140W. SEAS WILL PEAK NEAR 13 FT LATE TONIGHT 
INTO EARLY SUN OVER THE FAR NW WATERS THEN WILL SUBSIDE AS THE 
SWELL PROPAGATES SE. THE LEADING EDGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER IS 
EXPECTED TO REACH FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST TO 05N140W BY 
LATE MON MORNING.

DECAYING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT CONTINUES TO 
AFFECT THE WATERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 111W AND 124W...IMPACTING THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF CABO SAN LAZARO. THIS 
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...AND WILL FALL BELOW 8 FT ACROSS 
THIS AREA BY EARLY SUN MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. GREAT 
BASIN IS STRENGTHENING. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER FAR NW 
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN THE FAR 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N AS INDICATED BY RECENT 
ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES. WINDS WILL SPREAD 
SOUTHWARD TO 28N BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING BY SUN 
NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THESE WINDS MAY MANAGE 
TO SPILL THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PASSES TO JUST W OF 
THE PENINSULA IN THE NE PACIFIC WATERS. 

OTHER PACIFIC GULF AREAS...WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IN TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA... 
PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING TO 
MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS DURING NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW LATE 
EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY 3-5 FT.

$$
LEWITSKY