000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081509
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC SAT MAR 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N80W TO 05N90W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 05N102W TO 07.5N110W TO 04N130W TO 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
60 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 80W AND 86W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 31N127W 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N113W AND SW TO 23N139W. A 
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED NW OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE COLD FRONT IS 
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FAR NW 
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
AND THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF THE 
ITCZ TO AROUND 20N. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS 
TODAY AND WILL STALL FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W BY LATE TONIGHT 
AND DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE SUN. 
 
SUBSIDING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT CONTINUES TO 
AFFECT THE WATERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 112W AND 125W...IMPACTING THE 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF CABO SAN LAZARO. THIS SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...AND WILL FALL BELOW 8 FT ACROSS THIS AREA 
BY SUN. A NEW SET OF NW SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW 
WATERS...WITH COMBINED SEAS CURRENTLY TO 9 FT EARLY THIS MORNING 
W OF LINE 30N136W TO 28N140W. SEAS WILL PEAK NEAR 13 FT LATE 
TONIGHT TO EARLY SUN OVER THE FAR NW WATERS AND CONTINUE TO 
SUBSIDE AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SE. THE LEADING EDGE OF SEAS 8 
FT OR GREATER IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST 
TO 06N140W BY LATE MONDAY. 

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER 
PRES OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN NW WINDS OVER 
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30 N. WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRES WEAKENS. 

$$
AL