000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080936
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC SAT MAR 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 07N85W TO 02N95W 
TO 04N100W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N100W TO 06N120W TO 
BEYOND 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES 
AND N CENTRAL MEXICO CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THIS 
MORNING...SUPPORTING A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW OVER N CENTRAL 
MEXICO. FARTHER WEST...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE N OF 20N ALONG ROUGHLY 
130W IS SUPPORTING 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 33N128W. THE 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS CONTRIBUTING TO 20 TO 25 
KT NW TO N FLOW FUNNELING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA...AS NOTED IN VARIOUS SHIP OBSERVATIONS. A 0430 UTC 
ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS N OF 26N BETWEEN 115W AND 
125W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE SUPPORTING 
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH 
CURRENTLY N OF HAWAII MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH 155W. 

MEANWHILE A LARGE SWATH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SEAS 8 TO 
11 FT CONTINUE TO OVER THE WATERS N OF 20N E OF 125W...IMPACTING 
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF CABO SAN LAZARO. THE SWELL 
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THIS 
AREA.

FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER 
THE GREAT BASIN AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY. 
THIS WILL SET UP A DECENT PRES GRADIENT WITH THE LOWER PRES OVER 
N CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH A 12 TO 15 MB DIFFERENCE IN PRES BY 
TONIGHT. WHILE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM SAN FELIPE IN THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE STILL LIGHT...OBSERVATIONS 
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER INDICATED WINDS TO 20 KT 
BEFORE THEY DECOUPLED FOR THE EVENING. GIVEN THIS PATTERN AND 
THE TREND IN THE OBSERVATIONS...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N 
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LATER TODAY AND PERSISTING INTO 
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRES 
WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. 

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WINDS FROM 06N TO 20N W OF 125W ARE 
DIMINISHING AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. SIMILARLY NW 
SWELL TO 8 FT IN THIS AREA IS DECAYING RAPIDLY...ALTHOUGH THE 
NEXT SET OF NW SWELL IS APPROACHING 30N140W FROM THE N CENTRAL 
PACIFIC. THE LEADING EDGE OF 8 FT OR GREATER IS EXPECTED TO 
REACH FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST TO 06N140W BY LATE MONDAY. A 
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH 30N140W THIS 
MORNING...PRECEDED BY FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE FRONT 
ALONG WITH THE ACCOMPANYING WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND STALL FROM 
30N135W TO 27N140W BY LATE SAT NIGHT. 

A WEAKENING CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS SITUATED NEAR 10N102W. THIS IS 
SUPPORTING PULSES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 240 NM OF 
THE CENTER. THIS CONVECTION HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...BUT SOME 
MINOR FLARE UPS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING CLOSER TO THE 
COAST OF MEXICO AS OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE COAST 
CONVERGE OFF SHORE.

GAP WINDS...WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH 3-5 
FT SEAS IN THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA...AND PANAMA 
THROUGH MONDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...EXCEPT INCREASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ENHANCEMENT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN