000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC FRI MAR 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 02N93W TO 
04N102W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N102W TO 07N120W TO BEYOND 
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 06N BETWEEN 82W 
AND 84W...AND ALSO FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 
35N127W. BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS SE-S OF THE HIGH THROUGH 32N126W 
TO 18N110W...AND TO THE SW OF THE HIGH TO 26N140W. TROUGHING IS 
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS 
BETWEEN THE TROUGHING AND RIDGING SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS S INTO THE 
AREA TO 28N...E OF 122W TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 
24 HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS SLIGHTLY.

A SET OF NW SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8-12 FT IS 
ROUGHLY W OF A LINE FROM 27N115W TO 04N134W...HIGHEST SEAS N OF 
30N E OF 122W...AIDED BY THE ADDITION OF NORTHERLY WIND WAVES.  
THIS SET OF NW SWELL WILL DECAY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE SE COVERING 
THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 112W AND 124W IN 24 HOURS...THEN TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT BY 42 HOURS. 

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY W OF 140W. THAT FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER 
TO THE NW CORNER TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS WILL ARRIVE 
AHEAD OF IT OVER THE NW CORNER BY SAT MORNING...ALONG WITH NW 
SWELL AT 8-10 FT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SAT AFTERNOON AS 
THE FRONT WEAKENS WHILE THE NW SWELL BUILDS TO UP TO 12 FT AT 
30N140W. THE FRONTAL AXIS WILL MANAGE TO BREACH 30N140W BY SAT 
EVENING...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH SUN. THE SET OF NW SWELL 
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE E-SE COVERING THE WATERS W OF 
A LINE FROM 30N127W TO 14N140W BY SUN AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N98W TO 10N110W. ASSOCIATED 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
TROUGH E OF 105W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE 
AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...CURRENTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS 
AND 1-3 FT SEAS PREVAIL. FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS WILL SET UP 
N OF 30N BY SAT MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH SUN MORNING AS THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TIGHTENS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS HAVE RAPIDLY DIMINISHED BELOW GALE 
FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE PAST SEVERAL 
HOURS...NOW BLOWING AROUND FRESH LEVELS. SOME RESIDUAL 8-9 FT 
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATER THIS EVENING.

MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH 3-5 FT SEAS IN 
THE GULF OF FONSECA...PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY