000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC FRI MAR 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                        

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH 
THE AREA YESTERDAY IS ALLOWING A BRIEF PULSE OF WINDS TO GALE 
FORCE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AROUND SUNRISE...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS 
BY FRI EVENING. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 10-11 FT 
DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS...THEN WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 
FT BY FRI EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 03N90W TO 
01N102W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N102W TO 05N120W TO BEYOND 
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF 
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 
10N105W TO 08N115W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 120W. THE UPPER FORCING IS ALSO 
INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 
95W AND 105W. 

FARTHER NORTH...A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING 
INTO SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW AT 
THE SURFACE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA. A 
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND A 1024 MB HIGH PRES 
CENTERED NEAR 32N128W IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG 
NW WINDS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA N OF 26N. THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS TONIGHT AND SAT AS 
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC TOWARD 
CALIFORNIA...ALLOWING THE FRESH NW FLOW TO DIMINISH INTO SAT OFF 
THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE LEADING EDGE OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL 
WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST 
OF BAJA AS FAR SOUTH AS CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE 
OVERALL AREA OF SWELL 8 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE TO SHRINK 
HOWEVER...AND IT WILL BE CONTAINED TO THE WATERS FROM 22N TO 30N 
BETWEEN 112W AND 122W BY LATE SAT...AND SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT 
ALTOGETHER BY LATE SUN.

HIGH PRES BUILDING BRIEFLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF 
THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES TRADE WIND FLOW OF AT LEAST 20 KT 
SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRES FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 135W. THE TRADE WIND 
FLOW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE 
AREA WEAKENS. 

FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL 
APPROACH 30N140W FROM THE WEST BY LATE SAT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC. THE UPPER 
DYNAMICS LIFT NE ALLOWING THE FRONT TO STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH 
SUNDAY. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THE 
FRONT STARTING SATURDAY...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 8 FT 
SWELL MOVING SE AND REACHING FROM 30N125W TO 12N140W BY LATE 
SUN. 

MEANWHILE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN 
THE GULFS OF FONSECA...PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH MOST OF 
SUNDAY...WITH FRESH GAP FLOW THROUGH PAPAGAYO SUN NIGHT INTO MON 
MORNING.

$$
CHRISTENSEN