000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070328
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC FRI MAR 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                        

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED 
THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE N OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS 
BUILDING DOWN EASTERN MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 
HAVE BEEN INDUCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE PAST FEW 
HOURS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE 
FORCE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BELOW 
GALE FORCE AROUND SUNRISE FRI...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS BY FRI 
EVENING. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 10-11 FT DURING THE 
GALE FORCE WINDS...THEN WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY FRI 
EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 06N88W TO 
04N102W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N102W TO 05N120W TO BEYOND 
03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE CALIFORNIA CHANNEL ISLANDS  
SW TO 30N123W. THE SW PORTION THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE AREA TO 
140W HAS DISSIPATED. 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 32N129W EXTENDS 
A RIDGE TO THE SE TO NEAR 16N104W...AND TO THE SW TO NEAR 
24N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER 
PRESSURES ALONG THE ITCZ WAS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E 
TRADES IN THE W CENTRAL WATERS HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY ALLOWING 
FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS. 

MEANWHILE NW SWELL OF 8-12 FT COVERS THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 
30N122W TO 23N117W TO 03N135W. MEANWHILE THE SET OF NW SWELL 
WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY WHILE PROPAGATING TO THE SE...WITH 
RESIDUAL 8-10 FT SEAS CONFINED TO THE WATERS N OF 21N BETWEEN 
112W AND 122W BY SAT EVENING.

1009 MB LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SW 
ARIZONA TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT INTO 
EARLY FRI...EXTENDING AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE NW ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS BY FRI MORNING. THE 
LOW/TROUGHING COMBINED WITH THE HIGH/RIDGING TO THE W WILL 
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS FROM POINT CONCEPTION 
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA N OF 27N E OF 122W TO THE NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE NW SWELL 
BUILDING HEIGHTS TO 10-14 FT FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO 27N. THESE 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SAT AS THE LOW DISSIPATES WEAKENING THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN TIGHTEN IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS EXPECTED N OF 30N SAT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W SAT. FRESH TO STRONG SW 
WINDS AND A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL 
BREACH THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS SAT MORNING... 
PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY SAT.

MEANWHILE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN 
THE GULFS OF FONSECA...PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH SAT.

$$
LEWITSKY