000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                                                                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC WED MAR 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.                           

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                        
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ARE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN 
EVOLVING SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT 
THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THU MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS SOUTHWARD 
TO THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA BY THU EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST 
TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE AROUND 03-06 UTC FRI... 
CONTINUING THROUGH 15-18 UTC FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 11-12 
FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO 
20 KT OR LESS WITH A SMALL POCKET OF RESIDUAL 8-9 FT SEAS LEFT 
BY 18 UTC FRI.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N91W TO 03N97W TO 05N105W.  
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N105W TO 06N110W TO 03N130W TO BEYOND 
05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION... 

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W. 
ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS S OF 30N...WITH MUCH STRONGER 
WINDS N OF 30N. SEAS OF 12-16 FT IN NW SWELL ARE W OF THE FRONT 
WITH NW SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING WELL TO THE SE... 
ENCOMPASSING THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 23N110W TO 07N118W TO 
00N130W. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO A RESIDUAL 
TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS DECAY TO 13 FT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE 
SET OF NW SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT W OF A LINE FROM 
30N132W TO 20N140W BY 48 HOURS.

1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN THE N CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 
27N126W. A RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE SE FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 
18N110W AND TO THE SW OF THE HIGH TO NEAR 21N140W. MODERATE TO 
FRESH NE-E WINDS ARE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W SUPPORTED BY 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURES 
WITH THE ITCZ. BY 24 HOURS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN 
OVER THE SW WATERS INCREASING TRADES TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS 
FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 134W. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN RELAX ENOUGH 
BY 48 HOURS FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH BACK TO MODERATE TO FRESH 
LEVELS ACROSS THE W CENTRAL WATERS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY FRI AFTERNOON AS 1009 MB 
LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/SW 
ARIZONA. THIS WILL INCREASE NW-N WINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS 
N OF 28N E OF 122W.

AN OLD SET OF PRIMARILY NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 7-8 FT IS S OF 
05N BETWEEN 95W AND 106W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT BY THU MORNING.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WELL LESS 
THAN 8 FT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULFS OF CALIFORNIA...PAPAGAYO 
...AND PANAMA THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY