000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                                                                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC WED MAR 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO 04N90W TO 04N101W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 04N101W TO 07N110W TO 07N110W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 93W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION... 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS W OF 125W. A CUT-OFF LOW IS CENTERED 
NEAR 07N114W. A SMALL AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE 
CENTER 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
IS OVER MEXICO BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E 
OF 90W. 

ON THE SURFACE...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER FROM 30N137W TO BEYOND 
28N140W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. SEAS 8 
TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL ARE NW OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED NEAR 27N126W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 
18N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALSO SUPPORTING MODERATE 
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO 15N.

TWO DECAYING SETS OF NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE 
FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS 7 FT OR GREATER COVERING NEARLY ALL OF 
THE FORECAST AREA W OF 100W. THIS REGION OF SWELL WILL CONTINUE 
TO SUBSIDE TODAY...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 8 FT BY 
TONIGHT. 

THE NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD SWELL OVER THE NW WATERS WILL BUILD 
TO 15-17 FT TONIGHT. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL ALSO SPREAD SE 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS IT DECAYS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
 
WINDS WILL PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
NIGHTS. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 20 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH IS THE PEAK TIME OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW. 

GFS MODEL SHOWS TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS REACHING 30 KT LATE THU 
NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT BY FRI EVENING. 
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE 
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD NEAR GALE FORCE AT 30-33 KT. PEAK SEAS 
TO 10 FT LATE THU WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT FRI NIGHT.

$$
FORMOSA