000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                                                                                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC WED MAR 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
05N90W TO 04N104W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N104W TO 06N108W 
TO 04N124W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90-120 NM.

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
(PRIMARILY NORTHERLY DURING NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW) WITH 3-5 FT 
SEAS THROUGH THU MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN 
THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD 
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE USHERED 
IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS TO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL COMMENCE BY 48 HOURS. 
THEREAFTER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE 
WINDS BY 06 UTC FRI.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING 30N140W. THIS FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT 
WHILE NEARBY WINDS AT FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN JUST 
OUTSIDE THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS NEAR 
26N126W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 17N107W 
AND TO THE SW TO NEAR 20N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ 
TO 15N.

A DECAYING SET OF PRIMARILY NW SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHTS OF 8-9 FT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL 
PORTION OF THE FORECAST WATERS WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE 
FROM 12N101W TO 10N95W TO 00N121W TO 00N115W TO 12N101W.  SOME 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS MERGING WITH THIS SET NW SWELL. THE 
SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE WED NIGHT.

SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG FAR NW MEXICO...COMBINED WITH THE 
RIDGING MENTIONED ABOVE IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS N 
OF 27N ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING 
FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS.

ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 19-21 SECONDS 
ON THE LEADING EDGE AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8-13 FT IS W 
OF A LINE FROM 30N118W TO 07N130W TO 04N140W...HIGHEST OVER THE 
NW HALF OF THAT AREA. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK AT 16 
FT BY 24 HOURS IN THE NW CORNER OF THE WATERS...THEN WILL DECAY 
BACK TO 12 FT BY 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE THE EDGE OF THE 8 FT OR 
GREATER NW SWELL WILL REACH TO 110W BY 24 HOURS...THEN WILL BACK 
OFF AND DECAY BY THU EVENING.

$$
LEWITSKY